The article discusses whether the schedule and structure of a sporting event can create additional opportunities for betters and make a profit.
Sports betting markets are very effective, so in general it is not easy to get profit here, at least using standard methods. However, a self-respecting bettor never stops looking for additional opportunities to outplay the market.
For individual sporting events, bookmakers usually set odds that are as close to the true values as possible, but an attempt to use the event structure is undoubtedly one of the underestimated opportunities to profit from a seemingly almost hopeless market.
Therefore, it is worth taking a closer look at the outright betting market, when bets are made on the entire competition, as a rule, long before it starts.
Profitable Betting Planning Theory
Let’s give the following example. Let’s say, before the start of a championship, we bet that team A will not be able to score a single goal against the opponents. The odds for such an outcome can be quite high – let’s take the value 5.10 here.
At the same time, according to the tournament schedule, team A will take turns meeting first with team B, then with team C, and finally with team D. Suppose that teams B and C are among the favorites of the tournament, and have a strong and reliable defense, and team D, on the contrary, is an outsider, so if team A can still score a goal, it will be easiest for them to do so in the last match on schedule.
Before the start of the tournament, quotes that team A will not score in each of its upcoming matches may represent the following values:
- Against team B – 1.20;
- Against team B – 1.70;
- Against team G – 2.50.
As you can see, these coefficients are quite consistent with the assumption that the easiest way for team A would be to hit the goal of team D. However, all three events are interrelated, and whether team A can score a goal for teams B and C depends on how much the corresponding quotes for the match against team G. will change greatly
The closing line odds, set before the very beginning of the tournament, may slightly change compared to the initial ones, and amount to the following values:
- Against team B – 1.20;
- Against team B – 1.55;
- Against team G – 2.25.
As you can see, we get a 5.10 odds for events, the sum of the odds for which on the closing line is only 5.00. Then the better, in order to strengthen his advantage, can simply bet on the fact that team A will score a goal for team G at the closing line odds.
FIFA World Cup
A similar situation developed at the last 2018 FIFA World Cup in Group G, where the Panama national team played, one of the weakest teams in the Mundial. According to the calendar, she had to play first with the England national team, then with the Belgium national team, and in the last match face to face with a comparable Tunisian team.
In the outright market, the odds for Panamanians to score the fewest goals compared to the rest of the World Cup was 9.00. It would be logical to hedge after the first two matches in the group: already knowing how many goals the other teams have scored, bet on a goal in the match against Tunisia.
The cards for those betters who bet on the absence of Panamanian goals from match to match were somewhat confused by the fact that the Central American team was able to excel in the game with the British. However, before the meeting between Panama and Tunisia, all the other teams scored at least two goals, so the bet that Panamanians will score in their final match fully justified itself.
Thus, our active bets before the last match in Group G would look like this: “The Panama team will score the fewest goals in the tournament – 9.00” and “The Panama national team will score in the match with Tunisia – 1.57”. As you can see, the outright betting market gives players more opportunities than betting before each game.
However, there is a downside to the coin. This example shows how the calculation of player benefit can get complicated. To correctly calculate the probability that Panama will score the least number of goals, it is necessary to calculate the probabilities of how many goals each of the other participants in the tournament will be able to score (which, by the way, is 31 national teams).
But experienced players can simultaneously find one more additional opportunity in the situation that has developed in this group thanks to the calendar. Since Belgium and England played against their weakest opponents in the first two matches, and then, having secured a pass to the playoffs in advance, actually got additional rest, it could be assumed that this would help the Golden Boot contenders from among the footballers .
So, by the way, in the end it happened – the top scorer of the World Cup was the Englishman Harry Kane. Of course, this fact could also be incorporated into the bookmaker’s odds, however, additional opportunities from the structure of major sporting events, as we see, can still be extracted.
Finding additional benefits
All of the above does not mean that in absolutely every major tournament you can find similar advantages associated with the outright betting market, but only emphasizes that you need to constantly discover new opportunities in the betting market.
More variables in the betting market increase the chances that the odds will be calculated ineffectively by the bookmaker’s experts. Then the player can afford to focus on only one participant in the competition and skip bets that do not carry benefits. Thinking outside the box is what can help you in this case.