The catch-up strategy in sports betting

With this material, we open a series of articles on strategies in sports betting. We hope that they will be useful for both beginners and experienced players.

We would divide all currently existing strategies into two types. The first, let’s call it “mathematical”, includes those that are based on some scientific principles, and most of them are suitable for both betting and financial management (in other words, gambling). The second type is purely playful strategies, which, unlike mathematical ones, are almost always applied to a particular sport, and are most often based on some of its features.

We’ll start with mathematical strategies, the most common of which is the so-called “dogon”. Actually, the name itself implies that the gambler needs to “catch up”, or rather, “overtake” his own unsuccessful bets in order to cover the previous losses with one successful one and remain in the black as a result.

Events with a betting odds of 2.00 or so are best suited for this strategy (we recommend using the 1.90 to 2.10 range). The type of sport in this case is unimportant (moreover, non-sporting events with suitable quotes will do), just like the market. In other words, using this strategy you can place bets both on the victory of one of the teams and on handicaps, totals, corners, red / yellow cards, etc.

The principle of the strategy is simple: after each lost bet, the next one is doubled, after each won, a return to the original bet is made. Let’s analyze this process with an example, and suppose that the first time you bet a small amount of 100 rubles:

  • 1 stake, 100 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 100 rubles.
  • 2 rate, 200 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 300 rubles (200 + 100).
  • 3 rate, 400 rubles. The result is a loss, 700 rubles in the red (400 + 300).
  • 4 bet, 800 rubles. The result is a loss, minus RUB 1,500 (800 + 700).
  • 5 rate, 1600 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 3100 rubles (1600 + 1500).
  • 6 bet, 3200 rubles. The result is a loss, in the red 6300 rubles (3200 + 3100).
  • 7 bet, 6400 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 12,700 rubles (6,400 + 6,300).
  • 8 bet, 12,800 rubles. The result is a win, in the black (at odds of 2.00)

100 rubles (12800×2.00 = 25600, 25600-12800-12700 = 100).

  • 9 rate, 100 rubles. And so on.

In our example, we deliberately “made” a lot of losing bets in a row in order to immediately show you the main drawback of this strategy. In pursuit (or, if you prefer, in “catching up”) for a win of only 100 rubles, you will use a very tangible amount of more than 25,000 rubles from your bankroll (game deposit) at the eighth bet. Whether such risks are justified, each player decides for himself.

Someone may say that the amount of the first bet can be significantly reduced, then the risks of losing significant funds will also decrease. Indeed, a number of bookmakers accept bets starting from 10 rubles. However, in this case, in order to win at least some tangible amount, you will need a lot of time. In addition, it should be borne in mind that the series of losses may drag on.

From the last statement, by the way, the second drawback of this strategy follows. With a long streak of defeats, you may simply not have enough funds on your gaming account, or you will not be able to bet another doubled amount due to the limited limit on your chosen event.

As a more advanced catch-up strategy, we want to offer you a slightly modified version of it, which allows you to make more mistakes (that is, make a larger number of lost bets in a row), practically without changing the total amount you risk.

At the same time, we should accept as truth the statement of many experienced bettors that the coefficient 2.00 does not differ much from 2.20 in the probability of winning (and for a certain separately taken pair of bookmakers it may even be quoted by the indicated numbers for a certain outcome of one and the same event).

As the amount of the first bet, we will choose 80 rubles (since if we win on the move, we will get 96 rubles in the black, which almost corresponds to our winnings with a bet of 100 rubles with a coefficient of 2.00), and the amount of each subsequent bet will be multiplied by 2.2 (and round off the resulting value), taking into account the odds of our selected events:

  • 1 bet, 80 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 80 rubles.
  • 2 bet, 150 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 230 rubles (150 + 80).
  • 3 bet, 270 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 500 rubles (270 + 230).
  • 4 rate, 500 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 1000 rubles (500 + 500).
  • 5 rate, 920 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 1920 rubles (920 + 1000).
  • 6 bet, 1680 rubles. The result is a loss, 3600 rubles in the red (1680 + 1920).
  • 7 bet, 3080 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 6680 rubles (3080 + 3600).
  • 8 bet, 5650 rubles. The result is a loss, in the red 12330 rubles (5650 + 6680).
  • 9 rate, 10 360 rubles. The result is a win, plus 102 rubles

(10360×2.20 = 22792, 22792 – 10360-12330 = 102).

  • 10 rate, 100 rubles. And so on.

Note that in this case, we get an extra opportunity for error (in this example, the eighth step, compared to the first example), while risking even less amount (22792 versus 25800 in the first example).

This “catch-up” option is applicable for betting on events with odds ranging from 2.10 to 2.30. By the same principle, you can create your own calculation options for large odds. In this case, we recommend taking a step of 0.2 (that is, the coefficients are 2.00; 2.20; 2.40; 2.60, etc.).

This strategy can also be used for smaller odds. However, do not forget that in this case the number of “rights” to error will significantly decrease. So, for events with odds of 1.60 (it is better to narrow the range of application here – from 1.55 to 1.65), we get something like this:

  • 1 bet, 160 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 160 rubles.
  • 2 rate, 440 rubles. The result is a loss, minus 600 rubles (440 + 160).
  • 3 rate, 1160 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 1760 rubles (1160 + 600).
  • 4 rate, 3100 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 4860 rubles (3100 + 1760).
  • 5 rate, 8290 rubles. The result is a loss, with a loss of 13,150 rubles (8290 + 4860).
  • 6 bet, 23760 rubles. The result is a win, plus 106 rubles

(23760х1,60 = 38016, 38016-23760-13150 = 106).

Here, at the sixth step, we risk a much larger amount than in the first two cases, but there is no guarantee that out of the first five bets, even with such a relatively low odds, at least one will play!

It is because of the already mentioned drawbacks of the “catch up” strategy, on its basis, other strategies have been developed with similar principles, but to a greater extent free from these drawbacks. We will consider them in our next materials.

In conclusion, we emphasize that there are no 100% winning strategies, otherwise bookmakers simply would not exist. Therefore, each strategy must be approached with your own mind!

The catch-up strategy in sports betting

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